Hospital admission and mortality rates for non-Covid diseases among residents of the long-term care facilities before and during the pandemic: a cohort study in two Italian regions.

Aim: Long-term-care facility residents are a vulnerable population who experienced reduced healthcare access during the pandemic. This study aimed to assess the indirect impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, in terms of hospitalisation and mortality rates, among this population in two Italian Regions, Tuscany and Apulia, during 2020 in comparison with the pre-pandemic period. Subject and methods: We conducted a retrospective cohort study on people residing in long-term-care facilities from 1 January 2018 to 31 December 2020 (baseline period: 1 January 2018-8 March 2020; pandemic period: and 9 March-31 December 2020). Hospitalisation rates were stratified by sex and major disease groups. Standardised weekly rates were estimated with a Poisson regression model. Only for Tuscany, mortality risk at 30 days after hospitalisation was calculated with the Kaplan-Meier estimator. Mortality risk ratios were calculated using Cox proportional regression models. Results: Nineteen thousand two hundred and fifty individuals spent at least 7 days in a long-term-care facility during the study period. The overall mean non-Covid hospital admission rate per 100 000 residents/week was 144.1 and 116.2 during the baseline and pandemic periods, with a decrease to 99.7 and 77.3 during the first (March-May) and second lockdown (November-December). Hospitalisation rates decreased for all major disease groups. Thirty-day mortality risk ratios for non-Covid conditions increased during the pandemic period (1.2, 1.1 to 1.4) compared with baseline. Conclusion: The pandemic resulted in worse non-COVID-related health outcomes for long-term-care facilities' residents. There is a need to prioritise these facilities in national pandemic preparedness plans and to ensure their full integration in national surveillance systems. Supplementary information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10389-023-01925-1.

Strategia vaccinale in un contesto incerto e in costante evoluzione.

Politics is facing the need to make important decisions about anti-COVID-19 vaccination campaign in uncertain and changing contexts. With reference to the time frame between the administration of the first and second dose, the scientific evidence is still weak and comes from different contexts. New ways to collect and synthesize expert knowledge and opinions are needed with the direct involvement of the citizens in order to explain the uncertainties and maintain trust in institutions and their decisions.

The indirect impact of COVID-19 pandemic on the utilization of the emergency medical services during the first pandemic wave: A system-wide study of Tuscany Region, Italy.

BACKGROUND: Utilization of Emergency Medical Services (EMS) declined during COVID-19 pandemic, but most of the studies analyzed components of the EMS system individually. The study aimed to evaluate the indirect impact of COVID-19 pandemic on the utilization of all the components of the EMS system of Tuscany Region (Italy) during the first pandemic wave. METHODS: Administrative data from the health care system of Tuscany were used. Changes in utilization for out-of-hospital emergency calls and emergency vehicle dispatched, emergency department (ED) visits, and patients being admitted from the ED to an inpatient hospital bed (hospitalizations from ED) during the first pandemic wave were analyzed in relation with corresponding periods of the previous two years. Percentage changes and 95%CI were calculated with Poisson models. Standardized Ratios were calculated to evaluate changes in in-hospital mortality and hospitalizations requiring ICU. RESULTS: Significant declines were observed in the utilization of all the EMS considered starting from the week in which the first case of COVID-19 was diagnosed in Italy till the end of the first pandemic wave. During the epidemic peak, the maximum decreases were observed: -33% for the emergency calls, -45% for the dispatch of emergency vehicles, -71% for ED admissions. Furthermore, a decline of 37% for hospitalizations from ED was recorded. Significant decreases in ED admissions for life threatening medical conditions were observed: acute cerebrovascular disease (-36%, 95% CI: -43, -29), acute myocardial infarction (-42%, 95% CI: -52, -31) and renal failure (-42%, 95% CI: -52, -31). No significant differences were found between the observed and the expected in-hospital mortality and hospitalizations requiring ICU during the epidemic peak. CONCLUSION: All the components of the EMS showed large declines in their utilization during COVID-19 pandemic; furthermore, major reductions were observed for admissions for time-dependent and life-threatening conditions. Efforts should be made to ensure access to safe and high-quality emergency care during pandemic.

Vaccine Literacy and Source of Information about Vaccination among Staff of Nursing Homes: A Cross-Sectional Survey Conducted in Tuscany (Italy)

Vaccine literacy (VL) mediates the transfer of information and facilitates vaccination acceptance. The aims of this study are to validate the HLVa-IT (Health Literacy Vaccinale degli adulti in Italiano—Vaccine health literacy for adults in Italian language) for the staff of nursing homes (NHs), to measure VL in such a peculiar target group, and to assess its relationship with the sources used to obtain information about vaccines and vaccinations. A survey has been conducted in a sample of Tuscan NHs using an online questionnaire. Eight-hundred and fifty-three questionnaires were analyzed. Two dimensions of the HLVa-IT appeared (functional and interactive/communicative/critical VL). The HLVa-IT interactive/communicative/critical subscale score was slightly higher than the functional subscale, although with no statistical significance. General practitioners (GPs) or other professionals have been reported as the main source of information by most of the respondents (66.1%). The HLVa-IT total score was significantly higher among those who have declared to use official vaccination campaigns (mean score: 3.25 ± 0.49;p < 0.001), GPs or other health professionals (3.26 ± 0.47;p < 0.001), and search engines (3.27 ± 0.48;p = 0.040) as the main sources of information. In conclusion, the HLVa-IT could be reliable test to investigate VL for staff of NHs, and also to highlight criticalities related to information sources.

Indirect impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and its containment measures on social inequalities in hospital utilisation in Italy.

BACKGROUND: The pandemic may undermine the equity of access to and utilisation of health services for conditions other than COVID-19. The objective of the study is to evaluate the indirect impact of COVID-19 and lockdown measures on sociodemographic inequalities in healthcare utilisation in seven Italian areas. METHODS: In this multicentre retrospective study, we evaluated whether COVID-19 modified the association between educational level or deprivation and indicators of hospital utilisation and quality of care. We also assessed variations in gradients by sex and age class. We estimated age-standardised rates and prevalence and their relative per cent changes comparing pandemic (2020) and pre-pandemic (2018-2019) periods, and the Relative Index of Inequalities (RIIs) fitting multivariable Poisson models with an interaction between socioeconomic position and period. RESULTS: Compared with 2018-2019, hospital utilisation and, to a lesser extent, timeliness of procedures indicators fell during the first months of 2020. Larger declines were registered among women, the elderly and the low educated resulting in a shrinkage (or widening if RII <1) of the educational gradients for most of the indicators. Timeliness of procedures indicators did not show any educational gradient neither before nor during the pandemic. Inequalities by deprivation were nuanced and did not substantially change in 2020. CONCLUSIONS: The socially patterned reduction of hospital utilisation may lead to a potential exacerbation of health inequalities among groups who were already vulnerable before the pandemic. The healthcare service can contribute to contrast health disparities worsened by COVID-19 through more efficient communication and locally appropriate interventions.

Indirect impact of Covid-19 on hospital care pathways in Italy.

Earlier in 2020, seven Italian regions, which cover 62% of the Italian population, set up the Mimico-19 network to monitor the side effects of the restrictive measures against Covid-19 on volumes and quality of care. To this aim, we retrospectively analysed hospital discharges data, computing twelve indicators of volume and performance in three clinical areas: cardiology, oncology, and orthopaedics. Weekly indicators for the period January-July 2020 were compared with the corresponding average for 2018-2019; comparisons were performed within 3 sub-periods: pre-lockdown, lockdown, and post-lockdown. The weekly trend of hospitalisations for ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) showed a 40% reduction, but the proportion of STEMI patients with a primary PTCA did not significantly change from previous years. Malignant neoplasms surgery volumes differed substantially by site, with a limited reduction for lung cancer (< 20%) and greater declines (30-40%) for breast and prostate cancers. The percentage of timely surgery for femoral neck in the elderly remained constantly higher than the previous 2 years whereas hip and knee replacements fell dramatically. Hospitalisations have generally decreased, but the capacity of a timely and effective response in time-dependent pathways of care was not jeopardized throughout the period. General trends did not show important differences across regions, regardless of the different burden of Covid-19. Preventive and primary care services should adopt a pro-active approach, moving towards the identification of at-risk conditions that were neglected during the pandemic and timely addressing patients to the secondary care system.

The indirect impact of COVID-19 large-scale containment measures on the incidence of community-acquired pneumonia in older people: a region-wide population-based study in Tuscany, Italy.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the indirect effect of COVID-19 large-scale containment measures on the incidence of community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) in older people during the first epidemic wave of COVID-19 in Tuscany, Italy. METHODS: A population-based study was carried out on data from the Tuscany healthcare system. The outcome measures were: hospitalization rate for CAP, severity of CAP hospitalizations, and outpatient consumption of antibacterials for CAP in people aged 65 and older. Outcomes were compared between corresponding periods in 2020 (week 1 to 27) and previous years. RESULTS: Compared with the average of the corresponding periods in the previous 3 years, significant reductions in weekly hospitalization rates for CAP were observed from the week in which the national containment measures were imposed (week 10) until the end of the first COVID-19 wave in July (week 27). There was also a significant decrease in outpatient consumption in all antibacterial classes for CAP. CONCLUSIONS: The implementation of large-scale COVID-19 containment measures likely reduced the incidence of CAP in older people during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Tuscany, Italy. Considering this indirect impact of pandemic containment measures on respiratory tract infections may improve the planning of health services during a pandemic in the future.

Reduction of Emergency Calls and Hospitalizations for Cardiac Causes: Effects of Covid-19 Pandemic and Lockdown in Tuscany Region.

Introduction: Containment measures were established to flatten the curve of COVID-19 contagion in order to avoid a crash of the healthcare system. However, these measures influenced the rate of hospitalization of cardiac patients. In this study, we aimed to analyse the impact of COVID-19 and the effects of lockdown measures on hospital admissions and alerts of emergency medical system (EMS) for cardiac causes in the Tuscany region. Methods: An observational, retrospective analysis from Italian Tuscany region was conducted. We evaluated consecutive patients contacting EMS or admitted to the 39 Emergency Departments (EDs) in Tuscany for cardiac causes in the first trimester of 2020. Data were compared with the same period in 2018/19. Results: The alerts of EMS for cardiac causes significantly decrease in 2020 and the highest difference between 2018/19 and 2020 was found immediately after national lockdown (Δ = -47.4%, p < 0.001). The number of admissions for chest pain in the EDs also decreased, with a maximum difference of -67.6% (p < 0.001) vs. 2018/19. The number of hospital accesses for acute coronary syndromes, atrial fibrillation, and heart failure in the EDs significantly decreased in 2020 as compared to 2018/19 (maximum Δ = -58.9%, p < 0.001; maximum Δ = -63.0%, p < 0.001; maximum Δ = -72.7%, p < 0.001, respectively). Conclusions: A significant decrease in the contacts to EMS for cardiac causes and in cardiac diagnoses was observed during the first trimester of 2020. Fear of contagion has likely played a relevant role. The lesson learnt from first wave of COVID-19 pandemic suggests that appropriate public information strategies and re-education of people are essential.

The risk of over-diagnosis in serological testing. Implications for communications strategies.

BACKGROUND: since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, the importance of developing a serological test has emerged and a debate on test accuracy and reliability become an issue widely discussed in the media. The importance of communication during this pandemic has been strongly underlined by public health experts, epidemiologists, media expert, psychologists, sociologists. In the case of serological tests, there are several aspects that have to be considered: why we perform the test, what population is tested, which are the parameters conditioning the results and their interpretation. OBJECTIVES: to show how to quantify the uncertainty related to the validity of the serological test with respect to its predictive value and in particular the positive predictive value. METHODS: the evaluation of a qualitative diagnostic test includes four distinct assessments: accuracy, empirical evidence, practical importance, and prevalence of the pathology. Accuracy is measured by the sensitivity and specificity of the test; empirical evidence is quantified by the likelihood ratio, respectively for a positive and negative test result; the practical importance of the result of a diagnostic test is assessed by the positive or negative predictive value. Prevalence of COVID-19 is substantial uncertainty and it is possible to estimate the apparent prevalence starting from the results obtained with a diagnostic test. RESULTS: at the moment, the knowledge about the accuracy of serological tests is limited and little attention is paid to confidence interval on point estimates. In terms of practical importance of testing at individual level, while negative predictive values are high whatever the level of sensitivity of the test, the interpretation of a positive results is very cumbersome. Positive predictive values above 90% can be reached only by tests with specificity above 99% at the expected prevalence rate of 5%. There is a linear relationship between apparent - testing positive - prevalence and real prevalence. The apparent prevalence in the context of serological test for COVID-19 is always larger than real prevalence. The level of specificity is crucial. CONCLUSIONS: the main applications of the serological test in the epidemic contest are: to study the seroprevalence of the virus antibodies in the general population; to screen the healthcare workers for the early identification of contagious subjects' health care settings and to screen the general population in order to identify new incident cases. In the first two cases, seroprevalence study and screening of a high-risk population, the consequences of the uncertainty associated to the statistics are already accounted for in the first situation, or are overcome by repeating the screening on the healthcare workers, and using the molecular test to verify the presence of the virus in those tested positive. The case of screening of general population is more complex and of major interest for the implication it may have on individual behaviours and on the implementation of public health interventions by the political decision makers. A positive result has, per se, no practical value for individuals since the probability of being really infected by the virus is low. The uncertainty associated with the different estimates (sensitivity, specificity and disease prevalence) play a double role: it is a key factor in defining the informative content of the test result and it might guide the individual actions and the public policy decisions.